What is 3D printing?
Additive manufacturing technology, also known as 3D printing technology, is an emerging manufacturing technology based on digital models that stacks materials layer by layer to produce physical objects. It embodies the close combination of information network technology, advanced material technology, and digital manufacturing technology. An important part of smart manufacturing. Compared with traditional subtractive manufacturing methods, additive manufacturing has many advantages such as manufacturing complex items without increasing costs, product diversification without increasing costs, no assembly, and zero-time delivery. It is especially suitable for manufacturing complex shapes and customized products. The pursuit of lightweight components. 3D printing technology will continue to promote and benefit from the rapid development of the customization economy.
The 3D printing industry is gradually moving from the introduction period to the growth period: After more than 30 years of development, the 3D printing industry has formed a relatively complete industrial chain, including various upstream raw materials, midstream 3D printing equipment and services, and aerospace, automotive , Medical, education and many other downstream applications. In recent years, the scale of the 3D printing industry has maintained rapid growth. In 2018, the scale of the global and domestic 3D printing industry reached 9.68 billion US dollars and 2.36 billion US dollars, respectively. The compound growth rate in the five years reached 26.1% and 49.1%. Will grow rapidly. We believe that the 3D printing industry has gradually entered the growth stage from the industry introduction period, and there have also been companies in China that have chosen the right track and model and have strong profitability in China.
Upstream raw materials, low-end sufficient, high-end shortage, domestic technology is constantly breaking through: raw materials are the basic factor determining the final quality and price of 3D printed parts, the domestic supply capacity of low-end raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the supply of high-end raw materials is still subject to certain restrictions . In 2017, my country’s 3D printing materials market reached 2.992 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 40%, accounting for 27.6% of the entire 3D printing industry market size that year, and it is expected to reach 16.4 billion yuan by 2024. With the continuous breakthrough of domestic technology, the prices of various raw materials are falling rapidly, and the prices of many raw materials are only about half of what they were two years ago.
Midstream equipment, industrial grade is the mainstream, and the curtain of import substitution has begun: equipment is the largest link in the domestic 3D printing industry, and currently accounts for about 40%-50% of the total output value of the entire industry; from the perspective of the domestic 3D printing market , The main screen of import substitution in the equipment link has been opened. In the stock market, the total share of the three companies including Luen Thai, Bright, and Huashu has reached 27.9% (mainly industrial-grade 3D printers); from a global perspective , The United States is still the largest market for equipment and applications, and the Chinese market is growing rapidly. It is expected that as the technology matures, the price of industrial-grade 3D printers still has a large room for decline, and the gradual increase in cost performance is conducive to the expansion of downstream applications. The competition for desktop printers is already fierce, and the market concentration is difficult to increase in the short term.
Downstream applications, aerospace, medical, automotive, and machinery are multiplying: 3D printing technology has already been used in military, aerospace, medical, automotive, mechanical equipment manufacturing and consumer fields. In 2017, among the downstream applications of China 3D printing, industrial products accounted for 55%, military products accounted for 16%, and civilian products accounted for 29%. The application scale of industrial-grade 3D printing far exceeded consumer-grade 3D printing. We believe that although the cost of 3D printing technology is gradually decreasing, it is still at a relatively high level. Therefore, it is judged that 3D printing will continue to be developed in high value-added industries first in the future.
With strong support from national policies, industry standards are gradually improving: In the context of my country’s industrial upgrading, 3D printing technology has received national attention, especially the “Additive Manufacturing Industry Development Action Plan (2017) issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 12 departments in December 2017. -2020)”, set an average annual growth rate of more than 30% for my country’s 3D printing industry, and the sales revenue of the additive manufacturing industry in 2020 will exceed 20 billion yuan. In addition, the industry standards for 3D printing are gradually being improved. At present, the Global Additive Manufacturing Association mainly has two standards, ASTM F42 and ISO/TC 261. ASTM F42 has issued 29 standards and 19 are under development; ISO/TC261 has Nine items have been released and 25 items are under development. There are already 5 relevant current standards in my country, another 3 are about to be released, and 12 are under research, covering many links from upstream raw materials to downstream applications. The gradual improvement of industry standards is conducive to the high-quality development of the 3D printing industry.
Investment advice: In the future, 3D printing is expected to profoundly change the current business model. At present, 3D printing is in a rapid growth stage, but its proportion in the entire manufacturing industry is still very small. We believe that the wider promotion and application of 3D printing depends on the further decline in the prices of raw materials and equipment, combined with the innovation and development of business models. At present, in the domestic market, 3D printing raw materials and equipment are in the process of import substitution, and a number of technology-leading companies have emerged. In the future, in the 3D printing track, continuous, high-quality, and effective research and development will become the key to stand out from the competition in the industry. We are optimistic about the application of 3D printing technology in high value-added aerospace, medical, automotive, nuclear power and other fields. The key suggestion is to pay attention to the science innovation board company Bright, and the plan to land on the science innovation board Shining 3D.
- (1) The development of raw materials is not as expected, which restricts the further expansion of downstream applications of 3D printing: the variety and quality of raw materials are the basic conditions for the final quality of 3D printed products. At present, the supply of high-end raw materials in my country is still largely dependent on foreign countries. In addition, the abundance of raw materials also determines the application space of 3D printing. If the development of raw materials and equipment is not as expected, it will hinder the promotion of 3D printing technology.
- (2) The risk of deterioration of the competitive landscape: At present, in some links with relatively low technical content such as desktop printers, competition has become fierce, and it is difficult to see signs of improvement in the competitive landscape in the short term. Enterprises in these links are facing the elimination of the market. risk.
- (3) The risk that import substitution is not as expected: overseas leading 3D SYSTEM, EOS, STRATASYS, etc. still have certain leading advantages in technology. If domestic companies fail to carry out effective R&D or the R&D progress is not as expected, there may be a market The situation in which share is seized by overseas leaders.